Probabilities

Imagine that you are at a table with me and some friends. I can raise my closed hand and say: I have a coin in my hand. What is the probability that I really have a coin in my hand? In fact, the probability would be rather high, because a coin can fit in my hand and there are lots of coins around. This probability depends on a lot of things, like my habit of telling lies or the truth. Without knowing my habits, you may reasonably say that there are 50% chances that I have a coin in my hand.

If I say that I have a rare coin in my hand, what is the probability then? Obviously, the probability drops, because the chances are lower if the object is rare. If I was a coin collector, there would be reasonable chances that I really have a rare coin in my hand. If I said that the coin I hold is a famous coin (not a copy) and everyone knows that the only such coin is kept in a museum, the chances would be far lower. You did not read in the newspaper that the coin was stolen. Maybe I'm an archeologist and found another one just like it but this would still be very improbable. So, the probability that I hold a famous rare coin is very low.

If I say that I have a real live horse in my hand, not those little toys, what would be the probability of that? As far as we know, a shrinking device does not exist yet, so the probability is very low. Plus, you have never seen a real live horse that can fit in your hand. It would be reasonable not to believe me. If a shrinking device did exist, the chances would be higher. What if horse sounds would be coming from my hand, would the probability increase? Not really, because a device that can fit in your hand can make those noises, and this alternative explanation is far more probable.

If I say that I have a pixie in my hand, one of those small magical creatures, what is the probability of that? The existence of pixies is not proven scientifically and just one such creature would revolutionize the world, because it would prove that magical creatures do exist. This discovery would be of great value. Yet, the fact that such a creature has never been observed by most of us or by scientists and their devices, makes their existence highly improbable. The fact that no magical creature has been proved to exist makes this point even stronger, for imagine that scientists discovered that ghosts exist, the probability that pixies exist would be higher.

So think about god (or gods), the soul, life after death, heaven and hell, angels and demons. What is the probability that such things exist? From my point of view, and from an objective point of view, the probability is very low indeed.

See this:
The dragon in my garage