Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Exponential growth

Most people don't understand exponential growth. Many of our current problems are caused by this lack of understanding.

A nice example of exponential growth is a legend: the man who invented the game of chess showed it to a king; the king was very pleased and wanted to grant one wish to that man. The man said this: "I want a grain of wheat for the first square of the chess board, two grains for the second one, four for the third one, and so on, doubling the amount each time".

The king didn't understand exponential growth, so he said: "I can give you a sack of wheat", but the man said: "I just want what I asked for, no more, no less". It was impossible for the king to grant him his wish because the number of wheat grains amounted to 18,446,744,073,709,551,615. That amount of wheat is approximately 80 times what would be produced in one harvest, at modern yields, if all of Earth's arable land could be devoted to wheat.

The world population doubled from 3 billion to 6 billion in 39 years (1960 - 1999). If that trend would continue, we would have 12 billion by 2038, 24 billion by 2077, 48 billion by 2116, etc.

Resources are being exploited at an exponential rhythm, that's insane. The only way that would work is if resources were infinite, which are not.

If the economy grows by 2% per year, in 35 years it would double.
What we do is just unsustainable, we are growing exponentially on a limited planet. We are acting as if there is no tomorrow. Are we incapable of understanding the consequences of our actions? This will end badly.

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